This section gathers short essays and analysis on the global agenda—especially the changing global economic and financial order, monetary and financial transformations, and technology-driven change. Recurring topics include the evolution of the monetary system since 1971, the role of the FED and central banks, systemic fragilities, and how shocks transmit across markets.
A second pillar is digital transformation: Bitcoin and crypto-market dynamics, Web3 and DeFi, and how new infrastructures may reshape money, credit, and power. I also write about the metaverse and the broader digital economy as part of a wider techno-economic shift.
In order to better understand Shiller’s price / earnings (P/E) ratio, it is necessary to examine the business hours chart that should be worked in the USA in order to purchase the S&P 500. In Figure 1, we see that in the last 20 years, the lowest number of working hours was experienced during the 2009 financial crisis, with an…
Mike Maloney blended the margin debt indicator (read: Margin Debt) with the Buffet indicator and created the “market fragility index”. While the Buffet indicator gives an idea about when the market is overvalued, the market fragility index gives information about how close it is to collapse, that is, its fragility. These two important and explanatory indicators are combined in a single…
The years in which the international bond market entered a rapid expansion period are the early 1980s. The international bond market, a market for foreign currency bonds issued and traded across national borders, has played an important role in the internationalization of capital markets since 1980. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, floating exchange rates were…
What will the Fed’s interest rate decision be? All markets are holding their breath waiting for this decision. Expectations are in two different ways, as predicted. Some, especially the economy newspapers, are united in the opinion that the Fed will not increase interest rates. Another segment, namely, a group led by Wall Street, citing the critical increase in inflation and…
States and central banks will have to print incredible amounts of money after the crisis in order to cope with the crisis, which the current health problem has had an accelerating effect. If they do, the price increases will also reach incredible proportions, which is actually nothing but a transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich. People who are aware…
What will the Fed’s interest rate decision be? All markets are holding their breath waiting for this decision. Expectations are in two different ways, as predicted. Some, especially the economy newspapers, are united in the opinion that the Fed will not increase interest rates. Another segment, namely, a group led by Wall Street, citing the critical increase in inflation and thinks that the Fed will take…
Margin Debt, Is it useful to predict the stock market crash? One of the most important indicators of the global crisis is the “margin debt” developed by US investor Mike Maloney.
There has always been an inverse relationship between gold price and the dollar. One of the measurement scales of the demand for the dollar is the DXY index, which is the average index of the dollar equivalent of 5 countries’ currencies. If the DXY index is increasing, it means that the demand for dollars in the world is increasing. As…