Two of the most important corners of global finance are sending distress signals at the same time. In one, private credit—a nearly $2 trillion market that grew up in the shadows of traditional banking—is revealing cracks that years of easy money had kept hidden. In the other, the U.S. Treasury market, the very bedrock of global finance, is behaving in…
Oil, gold, war, and the quiet architecture of the next energy order Arzu ALVAN | April 5, 2026 There is a strange clarity that arrives only after a disruption. Before the disruption, markets hum along and experts speak in probabilities. After the disruption, the same experts scramble to explain why they did not see the obvious. I have been thinking…
Yuan, war, energy, and the quiet attempt to redesign the financial map There are moments in history when the surface looks calm, but under that calm, something important is moving. The financial system is often like that. On the outside, the dollar still looks untouchable. It is still the main reserve currency. It is still the deepest market. It is…
Arzu Alvan · arzualvan.com · March 2026 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── There is a strange silence that can fall over a battlefield. Not the silence of peace, but the silence of something withheld—a breath the world is holding, waiting for an echo that never comes. In financial markets, geopolitical crises are supposed to be the explosions, and precious metals—gold and silver—are the sound,…
A comparative analysis of gold, silver, and oil spreads across pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis phases in hypothetical Middle Eastern conflict scenarios Arzu Alvan | March 7, 2026 There is a strange poetry in how the world’s most critical energy chokepoint—a sliver of water barely 21 miles wide at its narrowest point—can send tremors through financial markets spanning every continent.…
Introduction Sometimes the global economy feels like a neighborhood where the same house keeps catching fire. We put out the flames, we rebuild, and then we move on—only to watch the embers ignite somewhere else entirely. Over the past sixty years, the world has witnessed oil shocks, financial meltdowns, pandemics, and now, a potential crisis brewing in a corner of…
CAPE ratio, Buffett Indicator, yield curve, and economic uncertainty — what do they say about where we are right now? There is a moment in every crisis, usually after the fact, when people say: “The signs were all there.” And they are right. The signs usually are there. The problem is not that we cannot see them. The problem is…
Executive Summary This report examines the relationship between global liquidity expansion and the performance of three key assets: gold, silver, and Bitcoin, using 67 years of empirical data (1959-2026). Key findings include: Global liquidity (proxied by US M2 Money Stock and Fed Total Assets) has expanded dramatically during crisis periods: 1971 Nixon Shock, 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and 2020 COVID-19…