Arzu Alvan · arzualvan.com · March 2026 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── There is a strange silence that can fall over a battlefield. Not the silence of peace, but the silence of something withheld—a breath the world is holding, waiting for an echo that never comes. In financial markets, geopolitical crises are supposed to be the explosions, and precious metals—gold and silver—are the sound,…
A comparative analysis of gold, silver, and oil spreads across pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis phases in hypothetical Middle Eastern conflict scenarios Arzu Alvan | March 7, 2026 There is a strange poetry in how the world’s most critical energy chokepoint—a sliver of water barely 21 miles wide at its narrowest point—can send tremors through financial markets spanning every continent.…
Executive Summary This report examines the relationship between global liquidity expansion and the performance of three key assets: gold, silver, and Bitcoin, using 67 years of empirical data (1959-2026). Key findings include: Global liquidity (proxied by US M2 Money Stock and Fed Total Assets) has expanded dramatically during crisis periods: 1971 Nixon Shock, 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and 2020 COVID-19…
Beyond the Surface The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices has left many investors questioning the “safe haven” story. I understand this reaction. When something is called a safe haven, people expect it to go up when fear goes up. But markets do not move only with fear. They move with liquidity, with interest rates, and with the…
We can say that the markets for gold, silver and Bitcoin are getting more and more positive. One of the sources we can rely on for this is the Trade Weighted Dollar Index.
As I mentioned in my previous articles, Basel 3 is a framework developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) in order to prevent the collapse of the financial system after the 2008 financial crisis, or rather to enable it to float. It regulates the capital and liquidity requirements of banks.
America announced that it will spend 6 trillion dollars in 2022. So why is this expenditure being made? How will this expenditure affect the prices of commodities such as gold and silver? Spending $6 trillion first makes everyone think that it will push up the stock market, gold, silver and bitcoin prices. This weakens the dollar and causes inflation. Will it really…
The internationally accepted measures that came into effect with the 2008 financial crisis to control and regulate the financial statements of banks and reduce risks are called Basel. Basel III aims to create a flexible banking system that supports the real economy. The aim of the measures revised with Basel III is to prevent excessive volatility of risk-weighted assets (RWA).…