Arzu Alvan · arzualvan.com · March 2026 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── There is a strange silence that can fall over a battlefield. Not the silence of peace, but the silence of something withheld—a breath the world is holding, waiting for an echo that never comes. In financial markets, geopolitical crises are supposed to be the explosions, and precious metals—gold and silver—are the sound,…
A comparative analysis of gold, silver, and oil spreads across pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis phases in hypothetical Middle Eastern conflict scenarios Arzu Alvan | March 7, 2026 There is a strange poetry in how the world’s most critical energy chokepoint—a sliver of water barely 21 miles wide at its narrowest point—can send tremors through financial markets spanning every continent.…
Introduction Sometimes the global economy feels like a neighborhood where the same house keeps catching fire. We put out the flames, we rebuild, and then we move on—only to watch the embers ignite somewhere else entirely. Over the past sixty years, the world has witnessed oil shocks, financial meltdowns, pandemics, and now, a potential crisis brewing in a corner of…
Executive Summary This report examines the relationship between global liquidity expansion and the performance of three key assets: gold, silver, and Bitcoin, using 67 years of empirical data (1959-2026). Key findings include: Global liquidity (proxied by US M2 Money Stock and Fed Total Assets) has expanded dramatically during crisis periods: 1971 Nixon Shock, 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and 2020 COVID-19…
Beyond the Surface The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices has left many investors questioning the “safe haven” story. I understand this reaction. When something is called a safe haven, people expect it to go up when fear goes up. But markets do not move only with fear. They move with liquidity, with interest rates, and with the…
Something strange happens with silver when the world gets into trouble. The price moves up before the crisis becomes official news. It is like silver knows something we don’t yet see. This is not a conspiracy theory. This is just looking at the data from the last fifty years. Silver moved up before the 1970s inflation disaster. It moved up…
The system we are in has been going downhill since 1971. We can say that the system took a big hit especially in the 2008 crisis and zombie companies were formed. Right after that date, the FED printed trillions of dollars to keep these zombie companies afloat. When we come to 2020, it has become clear that the system cannot…
We can say that the markets for gold, silver and Bitcoin are getting more and more positive. One of the sources we can rely on for this is the Trade Weighted Dollar Index.