Buffett Indicator and S&P 500 as Crisis Indicators

In order to better understand Shiller’s price / earnings (P/E) ratio, it is necessary to examine the business hours chart that should be worked in the USA in order to purchase the S&P 500. In Figure 1, we see that in the last 20 years, the lowest number of working hours was experienced during the 2009 financial crisis, with an average of 30.9 hours. It is clearly seen on the chart that the stock market bubble in 2000 has also been overcome.

Fıgure 1. Working Hours to Buy the S&P 500

Source: www.goldchartsrus.com, Nick Laird (Working hours to buy the S&P 500)

 

This is another indication that we are in the biggest stock market bubble ever seen. Another important indicator showing that the stock market is ballooning and the crisis is approaching is the “Buffett Indicator” developed by Warren Buffett, one of the famous US investors.

Figure 2. Buffett Indicator

Source: https://palisade-research.com/warren-buffet-indicator-signaling-market-crash/ (Numerator: The Whilshire 5000 Stock Index: Denominator: Nominal Quarterly GDP)

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About Arzu ALVAN

I am Arzu Alvan. My work sits at the intersection of growth, productivity, innovation, and sustainability, with a recent emphasis on the digital transformation of money and markets. My academic background includes doctoral research on sources of growth and growth accounting approaches for manufacturing. My writing is shaped by a long-standing interest in how monetary regimes evolve, how crises reveal hidden fragilities, and how technology reconfigures the boundaries of markets and policy. I aim to keep the analysis rigorous while making it readable for non-specialist audiences. Across my work, I focus on mechanisms: how incentives and institutions shape long-run development outcomes, and how technological change—such as blockchain, Web3, and central bank digital currencies—can alter the architecture of money, intermediation, and governance.
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